Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
